When designing new aviation policies and regulations, policy makers and regulatory bodies need to balance different policy objectives, taking into account the trade-offs between the interests of a multiplicity of stakeholders as well as between short-term and long-term objectives. This is not always an easy task: the air transport system is composed of a myriad of elements that interact with each other, giving rise to non-linear effects, emergent phenomena, and other properties characteristic of complex systems that make the air transport system intrinsically difficult to model. This inherent complexity is exacerbated by the uncertainty caused by rapid societal and technological change and unexpected events like the COVID-19 pandemic.
Untangling the complexity of the air transport industry
We collaborate with aviation authorities to provide them with information, models and decision support tools that help them understand the possible impacts and unintended consequences of different alternative policies and regulatory reforms. To this end, we make use of an array of techniques, ranging from scenario planning, backcasting methodologies and stakeholder consultation processes to agent-based modelling, gaming experiments and participatory simulations.